Chapter 8: Using the Automated QuickDog Tuning Features - SUPERTUNE and Single-Tune
SUPERTUNE - Definition - the process of providing a TARGET VALUE to QuickDog and allowing QuickDog to find an optimum set of WEIGHTING VALUES for a particular handicapping style to provide a maximum value of the TARGET VALUE.
To do this, QuickDog uses historical BACKTEST data and the BACKTEST WAGERING features automatically. As it does this, the weighting factors are changed and tested to customize your handicapping method based on whether you want a large ROI, Winning Percentage, Maximum Bankroll or several other outcomes.
By now you should have become familiar with QuickDog "WEIGHTING FACTORS" and how to tune them manually. If not, then please read about that topic before continuing with SUPERTUNE. What you've done is, change the WEIGHTING VALUE for some particular column of a handicapping style, run BACKTEST, then observed the outcome, hoping that some "target value" would improve. The target value might have been your WIN %, or ROI, or even your BANKROLL.
This tutorial will discuss the setup and use of the SUPERTUNE and Single-Tune features of QuickDog.
SUPERTUNE will automatically test different values of all the weighting factors of a handicapping method in order to attempt to find the maximum value of the target value. Very simply, this is exactly what you've been trying to do by providing your own weighting factors. The result of SUPERTUNE is a more rapid result of what you've been doing manually.
In future revisions of QuickDog we'll be working on improving this process. For now, it is important that you understand how to setup SUPERTUNE which tunes all Weighting Factors at the same time and also Single-Tune to use a single WEIGHTING FACTOR/TARGET VALUE combination.
For purposes of this discussion we shall again return to our CCe10-07e program which is a 13 race program. Though not a statistical gold mine of information, the purpose here is to explain the method of SUPERTUNE simply so that you can begin to tune the handicapping methods for your track(s).
Figure 1 - Standard Method CCe10-07e
We begin at our Standard Handicapping Method display which, by now, should be pretty familiar to you. Next we select the FACTORS button just as we did when "manually tuning" this handicapping method. See Cursor.
Figure 2 - Weighting Factors Pop-Up for Standard Method
Move the cursor to the location shown in Figure 2, "CLEAR ALL PROFILES FOR THIS TRACK". Selecting this button will initialize ALL your track profiles for Corpus Christi to "default" tuning values for the method you are using. Default values are those that existed when you first installed QuickDog. Select this button, then respond to the next "verification" pop-up with "I WANT TO" indicating you really do wish to initialize all your track profiles to default values.
Any time you wish to "start over" with the tuning process, you may use this feature. What it does is delete all your Track Profiles for the given track. This forces the default values to come up.
Figure 2a - Supertune Control Display Popup
Now, after having performed the "CLEAR PROFILES" action, you may select the "CLICK HERE TO CONTINUE WITH SUPERTUNE" Button to display the popup of Figure 2a. Note the pop-up has 2 parts, the data entry portion on the right which is used to change the PRECISION value. And, the TUNE TARGET portion on the left.
For now, let's ignore the PRECISION value. Let's look then at the left side, the TUNE TARGET options.
Note the buttons, labeled with options A through J. Each option represents an item from the BACKTEST or WAGER BACKTEST feature of QuickDog. You should be familiar with each of these if you've looked over the BACKTEST and WAGER tutorials. If not, you should go to those tutorials now and return here when you've completed them.
Options A through D refer to the values generated using BACKTEST Method A or Method B. Next, options E through G represent the totals BACKTEST WAGERING produces during the backtest of Wager 1. Likewise, options H through J represent the results for Wager 2. For more information, select the HELP button at the bottom of the TUNE TARGET portion of this pop-up.
For this tutorial exercise, let's try to tune so our ROI for Wager 1 is maximized. Select this button, and the letter E will appear as the "CURRENT SELECTION" at the top of the TUNE TARGET column of this pop-up.
Figure 3 - We tune the Standard Method to MAXIMIZE Wager 1 - ROI
Now, run your cursor over the the "SUPERTUNE" button beneath the Entry Keypad. Select this button, and the familiar BACKTEST display will appear.
Figure 4 - Tune Variable was Selected, Backtest Appears
Make a quick check of your backtest display and compare it to what we have above, and make any changes necessary. You are almost ready to tune for ROI, however, you must first enter a wager! You've already done this, so go ahead and enter a WIN wager for our 1st pick. Don't forget to enter the wager amount. Just use $2. Also, select the DET wagerlog report so that we can see all our 13 wagers.
After wager entry, we are now ready to SUPERTUNE the STANDARD HANDICAPPING Method based on maximizing the ROI%. Select the ANALYZE button and QuickDog will perform the SUPERTUNE of this method. What happened?
Figure 5a - In the Yellow Supertune Window we have 66% ROI Found
If you used EXACTLY the same data as this tutorial did, then you will be presented with the display above. It indicates that the best value for %ROI was obtained with the factors set as shown in Figure 5b below. Simply click the Right Mouse Button to return to the handicapping style display shown below. Will SUPERTUNE save you time in your handicapping with QuickDog?
Figure 5b - QuickDog Automatically Selects these Weighting Factors
Now let's check our results by selecting the BACKTEST button. Next select the Wager and turn on the Wager Log Display. Finally, select ANALYZE and you will see what the results of the Auto-Tune are.
From a backtesting point of view, ie., hindsight is always 20-20, we did exceptionally well as shown below in figures 6 and 7.
Figure 6 - Note the ROI % of 66%
Figure 7 - Here are the wagers we won and lost (Detailed Wager Report)
Now you've completed a sample SUPERTUNE for the Standard Method. As practice you should now SUPERTUNE the remaining Handicapping Styles in QuickDog. Also, instead of SUPERTUNE, try selecting SINGLE-TUNE. This feature simply attempts to improve a single weighting factor.
NOTE - QuickDog can not guarantee that it has selected the optimum settings. The reason? It can not test all the billions and in some other cases trillions of combinations possible. It does however quickly give you an indication of whether your wagering strategy may be profitable at a particular track.
Each GRADE can be individually tuned just as was the case for manual tuning. As you can see, using QuickDog requires you to feed it data and may require you to keep a "tuned method" fresh. By this we mean that conditions may change and you may notice that your method loses some of its statistical returns when you backtest a week or a month from now. The less data you use (history programs/charts), the more often your system will need tuning. In theory, if you took a complete season of data and tuned it, you would be able to count on the results you obtained for the next season, as long as no major changes occurred in that track. This is what statistics is all about.
As always we invite your questions and comments via email - firstname.lastname@example.org
Copyright 2001 JONSOG associates, Inc. PO Box 911, Lyle, WA 98635 Last Updated on - 05/10/2003