MORGAN METHOD TIPSHEET EXPLANATION
==================================
This help file describes the way data from race programs are
used to calculate the SCORES for the Morgan Method.
Number of Races
===============
In the Morgan method you may have different numbers of races for each
calculated column. Recall in other methods, the same number of races
was used for each column of data.
PPP Column/InGrade Column
=========================
At the heart of this method is the PPP column.
This column takes a look at the other columns shown on this
method, BUT ONLY CALCULATES these values for races within + or - post
positions of today's race for a particular dog. In other words is a
dog's chances improved by where this dog is running today?
Factors considered within this column are:
1) Break
2) Early Speed (1/8th)
3) Late Spead (Stretch)
4) Gain
5) Form
6) Speed
7) Best Speed
8) TRB%
9) WPS%
Each of these columns are explained below.
IN GRADE - In grade is similar to PPP except the filter is that all
races considered for any dog must be in the grade for this race. In
other words, if today's race is Class A, then only races that the dog
has run in Class A will be considered. PPP is not considered in the
IN GRADE computation. And IN GRADE is not considered in the PPP
computation.
Break Column
============
Break is calculated by averaging the past races of a dog's past
performance. To compute Break, the software averages the "first call"
position for each race. For example, if the dog breaks 1st, 3rd and
5th in three races, the average break would be 3 (1+3+5 divided by 3).
This average is shown in the BREAK column. For the RANK, however,
each dog is then given a score of 1-8 (1 for the best break, 8
for the worst).
1/8th Column
===========
This is early speed and is calculated the same was as "BREAK" is
except that the "eighth" call is used.
STR Column
============
STR is calculated the same was as BREAK and 1/8th except that the
stretch call is used.
FIN Column (Toggle by selecting the PICK button above STR)
==========================================================
FIN is calculated the same was as BREAK and 1/8th except that the
Finish call is used.
GAIN
====
Gain is a combination of values calculated in the STANDARD METHOD for
break, early speed, and late speed columns. Each of these measures is
then multiplied by entered value we've calculated (not shown). Finally
the average of the sum of these 3 values is obtained. The final sum will
be divided by the total sum of these factors we've provided (not shown)
to yield the average value.
FORM
====
FORM is a similar to GAIN except that "vertical" calculations are made
for a dog's past outings rather than "horizontal" calculations as is
the case for GAIN. If you start with the dogs most recent outing, take
this break postion, call it T1, and the break position of the next to
last outing, call it t0. Form is (t0 - t1). This value, if positive,
indicates the dog broke better. Now, doing this for each of the past
races produces a total score. This same calculation is made for the
1/8 call, and the stretch call. Like GAIN, each is multiplied by a
factor we've provided. Finally this sum is averaged as was the case with
GAIN.
Grade
=====
This column tells you whether a dog is dropping in
grade for this race or moving up or staying in the same grade. Depending
on whether a dog is going up or down in grade will affect the BREAK,
ESPD and LSPD columns. How? Each will be multipled by the GRADE factor
that we provide (not shown) For example, if a dog is dropping in class,
you might figure his numbers for BREAK, 1/8th, and STRETCH should be
improved so we've set this factor to LESS than 1.0. By the same token,
if the dog is moving up, we want to worsen those measures by using a
factor GREATER than 1.0. For the Morgan Method, double grade drops are
also considered.
SCHL races are skipped and don't count in this number of races to seek
for grade changes.
In this field you'll see either UP, DOWN, DBLD, DBLU, ????, or a blank
space. Meanings for each are given below.
UP - the dog is moving up in class since his last race.
DOWN - the dog is moving down in class since his last race.
DBLD - the dog is dropping 2 or more grades.
DBLU - the dog is moving up 2 or more grades.
???? - the program is unable to determine whether the dog is moving
up or down in class and you should consult your racing chart.
blank - the dog is running in the same class today as in his previous
class and the distance is the same as well.
CLASS (also Part of the GRADE Column)
=====================================
This number (lowest indicates better class) provides a mathematical
calculation of a dog's class prior to this race.
Speed Column
============
Speed is calculated by averaging the past races of a dog's past
performance.
Best Time
=========
The dog's best time, based on this program, is shown in this column.
Then a rank value is given, 1-best time to 8-worst time.
WPS Column
==========
The WPS column is calculated by dividing the total number of Win,
Place, or Show finishes by the total number of races considered
and creating a percentage. If a dog had 3 races and finished 1, 2, or
3 in everyone, then this field would show 100%. For total overall
ranking, the dogs are rated 1-best to 8-worst based on this column score.
The win, place, show and starts line of the program is used. Only the
first line is used.
TRB (Trouble) Column
====================
The TRB column is calculated by dividing the total number of troubled
races by the total number of races considered and creating a percentage.
RANK Average (Appears in the lower left corner of the display)
==============================================================
The rank is calculated by averaging all column values and should equal
a number from 1 to 8 including decimal values.